Gippsland in all its glory was on display last weekend as all and sundry came out to make their last ditch efforts to sway the voters of what has always been National Party heartland.

But so much for country hospitality it seems at least at some of the more remote (and more firmly National Party) polling booths some of the Labor volunteers were not particularly well treated with allegations that abuse was hurled and service at local shops was refused.

In one instance a young Labor scrutineer who found themselves unable to make their way back to the ALP's local campaign headquarters was told by the owner's of the town motel that they would not allow Labor people to rent a room and was literally left out in the cold for the night until help arrived many hours later.

Also significantly in the Gippsland by-election was an example of the increasing importance of postal votes. No longer is the postal vote restricted to those unable to attend a polling booth and this idea is being increasingly embraced by voters across the country.

A massive 20% of all voters in Gippsland chose to vote in advance via correspondence and all signs are that this trend is playing out across Australia. Making postal vote campaigns and the techniques associated incredibly vital to the modern Australian election campaign.

Welcome to the wonderful world of US politics. As this year’s US Election heats up Parker & Partners will bring you a weekly blow by blow analysis of all things McCain and Obama.

This week saw Barack Obama courting the important conservative vote. Obama proclaimed that if elected President he intends on expanding White House efforts to deliver social service dollars to various religious groups – an initiative instigated by George W Bush.

This is very risky business indeed. Clearly an outreach tactic, designed to motivate voters who are traditionally Republican, this stance has the potential to create uproar from within the ranks of the Democratic Party who up until this point have seen Obama as a champion of progressive politics.

Obama’s political messaging has started to focus on other centrist themes as well with comments on guns, government surveillance and capital punishment. He is clearly attempting to implement a vernacular that resonates with the more conservative side of politics in America.

He said recently that, "While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work.”

It seems as though his strategy is working - Obama recently won the endorsement of the Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell, leader of a Methodist megachurch in Houston who is particularly close to Bush Jr.

Conservative Christians make up about a quarter of the US suffrage, and they helped elect Bush Jr to office twice. Many are likely to oppose Obama because of his support for abortion rights, gay rights and other issues.

Who knew a humble blog could send a major political party into meltdown? That’s what happened when staffers in the Victorian Liberal party head office were exposed for running a supposedly anonymous anti Ted Baillieu blog from their PC’s.. The scoop didn’t come from via mainstream media sources but the now infamous blog of Andrew Landeryou. The story then became front page news for the better part of a week with stories on the matter still running today.

To make matters worse the reaction from Ted Baillieu’s and his supporters turned the story from merely embarrassing to a full blown crisis and media circus.The clear threat is a whole lot more damaging emails are stored away in email folders around Victoria. The moral of the story? The Internet is never actually anonymous and email is on the record forever. A fact Malcolm Turnbull might like to keep in mind.

Sitting in the back row of the auditorium at the Sydney Convention Centre on Saturday, one might have noticed young Sam Dastyari, State Organiser of the NSW Labor party scurrying back and forth between the head table, including NSW Labor President (and Secretary of the Electrical Trades Union), Bernie Riordan and General Secretary Karl Bitar and the parliamentary leadership. More than two hours of closed door negotiations between the government and union power brokers during the afternoon failed to craft a deal on the sell-off plan ahead of the formal debate.

No matter which side of politics one supports, Morris Iemma has shown clear and unshakeable leadership on this issue. With limited surpluses at his disposal, Iemma is doing what needs to be done, freeing up dollars for investment in essential state services. The Labor caucus threw its weight behind Iemma and strongly endorsed his reforms yesterday, providing him with the political oxygen to move forward without the broader support of the party.

The next step in the process is a meeting today involving Bernie Riordan - a strident opponent of privatisation, Iemma, Michael Costa, the Industrial Relations Minister John Della Bosca and senior party officials. Costa, the architect of the reforms, is no mood for compromise and most assume today's meeting will just tick the box. How this episode plays out in the Parliamentary party's relationship with the Union movement will be interesting to watch.

The question OTR has been asking all week is 'where is Barry O’Farrell?' This is a great opportunity for the Opposition to make some noise, differentiate themselves and further refine their brand. But alas, Barry was no where to be seen.

We’re sure you have all heard about how much control the Prime Minister’s office have over the Ministry and the messaging that comes out of the Government. This week’s carer’s payment controversy has shown how centralised control in issues management can be a weakness when a quick response to an issue is required.

When this story broke, the PM was travelling overseas. The time it took for the Government to respond really highlighted just how centralised the messaging and planning in this Government is. By the time they had a read on the community’s feelings on this issue and developed their response - the Opposition had already gained much needed air time. One of the most important skills to have when it comes to issues management is the ability to differentiate between the issues which will fade into the background and those that need to be addressed quickly and decisively.

By not addressing it quickly, the Opposition has been handed the traction it has been searching for with the electorate on a silver platter. To their credit, the Government has embraced their mistake today, admitting they didn’t address the situation quickly enough and moving to limit the “angst” this issue has created for carers by guaranteeing payments in this Budget.

When it comes to Issues and Crisis Management, this issue has highlighted how vital it is for governments and companies alike to have in place a team that can assess and respond quickly to issues as they arise. Otherwise you risk giving the issue legs, as has been the case here, on which it runs for much longer than is good for the health of your brand.

Today the word that thousands of indigenous Australians have been waiting to hear from a Prime Minister were spoken today at Parliament House: "sorry". At 9am today - a motion offering an apology to Australia's indigenous people was tabled in the House of Representatives.

In a clear acknowledgement of the power and symbolism that that one word has built up over the past 11 years since the 'Bringing Them Home' report was tabled in Parliament - Kevin Rudd said sorry twice, early in his address. He also apologised for "for the laws and policies of successive Parliaments and Governments that have inflicted profound grief, suffering and loss on these our fellow Australians".

His speech was met by applause and cheers and was seen across a number of live sites in every major capital city and on the lawns outside of Parliament House. As reaction and reporting emerges - it appears that the PM’s speech has read the public mood well. He has also taken the interesting step of inviting the Leader of the Opposition to join him in a 'war cabinet' on Indigenous issues. Once again - being seen to rise above politics is often the best political move that a politician can make.

In the ongoing show of bi-partisanship, the Opposition leader Dr Brendan Nelson supported the motion, but was much more qualified in his offering of an apology. Playing King Solomon is a challenging task and in trying to appease those members on the Opposition benches uneasy with the apology, Dr Nelson is likely to be heavily criticised.

Certainly, a number of people viewing his speech in Parliament House’s Members Hall made their feelings known, yelling ‘shame’ and turning their backs on Dr Nelson as he spoke. To his credit, Dr Nelson did say 'sorry', finishing with "As one people, we are sorry".

As the results stream in from what is being touted as “Super Duper Tuesday”, we thought we would take a look at the negative side of American political campaigning on the internet. A fine example of this is Stop Her Now (Click here to have a peek…) an American political action committee with the stated goal of “Rescuing America from the radical ideas of Hillary Clinton”. Initially intended to derail Clinton’s presidential aspirations in 2005, by securing her defeat in the 2006 senatorial race, it has obviously not been very effective!

In Republican e-news, bass-playing presidential contender Mike Huckabee recently pulled a negative campaign ad against fellow Republican Mitt Romney. To mark this momentous occasion in politics, Huckabee aired the ad in front of a myriad of journalists at a press conference. However he went on to denounce political attack ads, saying he hoped the negative ad produced by his own campaign would never be aired publicly. Talk about getting your message out to your primary audience whilst still covering your backside! The ad calls in to question the former Massachusetts governor's track record on immigration, taxes, crime fighting and healthcare. Thank God for YouTube.

And on the lighter side of things, America’s most famous sketch comedy show, Saturday Night Live, created their own attack ad of sorts… They achieved this by adding a laugh track to a serious political ad from Mitt Romney. And look at this parody of what an anti-Thomas Jefferson ad might have looked like.

Also, an interesting article from the New York Times from February 4th, analyses the differences between Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s campaign websites. Read the article here. The article compares the two websites to the famous “Mac Guy/PC Guy” TV ads. Doug Kendall from the political blog, The Huffington Post has done a similar analysis which you can read here.

There are many on the frontbench and in the Public Service who must think that Kevin Rudd is both Ebeneezer Scrooge and the Grinch rolled into one. December is usually a pretty quiet time in Canberra. With no sitting weeks, it can be a time of long lunches and endless Christmas events... but not this year.

Rudd is currently in Bali with nearly half the Cabinet, making his first foray into international diplomacy as the Country's leader. While the trip is predominantly about Climate Change, it is also an opportunity to set the right tone for the (sometimes difficult) ongoing bilateral relationship with Indonesia.

While ratifying Kyoto was Rudd's first act as PM, the new post-2012 agreement being developed in Bali is going to be the first real test of his leadership and will require a careful balancing act.

Back at home, under the watchful eye of Acting PM Gillard, Government officials are frantically preparing new IR legislation, the words for an Aboriginal apology, the outline of the Health Reform agenda and the paperwork for a snap COAG meeting on Thursday 20 December. Covering everything from the future of health and education, to infrastructure and business deregulation, next week’s COAG agenda is both lengthy and ambitious.

The interesting additional element at this COAG is that, for the first time, State and Federal Treasurers will also be seated at the table. Having the economic managers at the table is an important visual for all Labor Governments. Rudd also said before the election that State-Federal duplication was generating massive inefficiencies, having the money-men at the table suggest that this inefficiency is something he wants to address front and centre of any reform agenda.

Next Thursday (20 December) will see the first Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting since the election. There will also be a few new faces around the table including new PM Kevin Rudd, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and new Northern Territory Chief Minister Paul Henderson.

The meeting is in Melbourne and in a departure from previous procedure, State and Territory Treasurers have also been invited to participate. Rudd's objective is to outline a program of work for 2008 and a number of high-level task forces under the chairpersonship of the Prime Minister, Treasurer, Premiers and Treasurers will then follow up, actually negotiating the policy outcomes and agreements.

First cab off the rank will be health and hospitals and how Federal Labor can reach agreements with the States to implement their election commitments concerning elective surgery waiting lists, the re-establishment of the public dental program, and provision of aged care beds.

Agenda item two goes to education and again will largely be concerned with implementing Labor's election promises on Computers in schools, Trades Training Centres, Asian language education, and the development of a national curriculum in four key subject areas through a National Curriculum Board.

The third and very important item will be the harmonisation of the Federal and State mandatory renewable energy targets emissions trading regimes. Rudd also wants to kick off a "full frontal assault on business deregulation".

During the discussion on infrastructure, Victorian Treasurer John Lenders has said the Government should consider reconvening the National PPP Ministerial Forum as Public Private Partnerships likely to be a key part in the delivery of the broader national infrastructure programme.

All in all it’s a full programme and Rudd will need to work hard to meet the electorate’s high expectations of cooperation between the ‘wall-to-wall’ Labor Governments.

By guest contributor Peter Shmigel, Director of P&P's Sustainability portfolio

Will Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong return to our shores with Australia committed to new greenhouse gas reduction targets or just with their hair braided and cases of Bali belly? The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia is down to the short strokes and it is the new Rudd Labor Government’s first big challenge. How will Labor achieve the right balance between environmental considerations and the reality of Australia’s resource-based economy?

What’s mainly on the table at Bali is the so-called Draft Decision. If adopted, it is a major step toward a future international decision on binding greenhouse gas emission rules after the overall UN Convention and its Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012. The Decision – while not de jure binding at this point – would strongly push signatories along toward a new set of post-2012 obligations and timeframes primarily including:

· Net emission reductions between 25% and 40% by developed countries including Australia by 2020 – as opposed to the 8% increase off 1990 base that we’re currently committed to, and;
· Slow-down in overall emissions by developing countries by 2020 – including many of Australia’s major trading partners.

The stars are aligned for progress in four ways: a) strongest possible scientific consensus on the extent and implications of the problem through the International Panel on Climate Change; b) strong economic evidence that inaction is costlier than action through the UK’s Stern Report; c) rising community expectations off the back of Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, and; d)unprecedented calls from business leaders for policy certainty, including targets and carbon pricing.

So, the bold OTR prediction: by week’s end, Australia will commit in principle to Bali’s 2020 target reduction of between 25 to 40% subject to the cost/benefits currently being identified on behalf of the Commonwealth, States and Territories by Professor Ross Garnaut. Labor will get the symbolism right while leaving itself some wriggle room on the substance (which is completely kosher under the likely Bali Decision). Call it a measured risk.

Indeed, games theoreticians say that you just don’t play for today, you play for tomorrow and tomorrow’s tomorrow. Building on the precision and acumen of his leadership takeover and election victory, Kevin Rudd is very likely to further prove his gamesmanship at Bali.