Issue 344, 1 February 2012

Issue of the week

A new year brings a fresh start for our politicians - a chance to cast off past difficulties and start with a clean slate.

Unfortunately for Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her Government, the script has not gone according to plan. What started as an awards ceremony to honour emergency services workers ended with the PM being physically escorted out of the Canberra venue by security officers from the Australian Federal Police. The scene became rowdy after Gillard’s media adviser Tony Hodges was involved in tipping off Aboriginal activists of Tony Abbott’s whereabouts, prompting them to launch a protest against his comments about the Tent Embassy made earlier that day.

Hodges resigned and questions followed about the extent of the involvement of Gillard’s office in the chain of events leading to the protest. The strength of the PM’s leadership credentials was in focus, rather than the Government's policies and achievements, as the PM had hoped. With Kevin Rudd hovering in the background, leadership speculation has again surfaced.

The PM looked to refocus with a doorstop on the economy with Reserve Bank Governor Glen Stevens yesterday. In reiterating her commitment to return the Budget to surplus in 2012-13, against the darkening storm of Europe’s economy, she is looking to refocus the community’s attention on her Government’s economic record. In his address to the National Press Club yesterday, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s objective was to project a more positive approach and a ‘can-do’ set of policy credentials.

Let the theatre begin. Parliament resumes on Tuesday.

Queensland election 2012

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has looked on as the other eastern states voted out Labor Governments and now, in her own words, she is braced for the political fight of her life.

The election is set for March 24, however the official caretaker period won't begin until February 19. Queenslanders will endure an unusually long campaign after Bligh postponed the election date from 1 March to allow the public to digest the Floods Commission of Inquiry report, due on 16 March, before heading to the polls. The official start to the campaign isn't fooling anyone with Bligh and Liberal National Party Leader Campbell Newman well and truly in election mode.

The latest poll shows the LNP having a healthy 59 to 41 per cent lead over Labor on a two-party preferred basis. The same poll has Newman (49 per cent) as preferred premier over Bligh (40 per cent).

Campbell Newman not only has to lead the LNP to victory, but he also needs to win the seat of Ashgrove to secure his place in the Queensland Parliament. To do this he needs a swing of 7.1 per cent, significantly above the uniform swing of 4.6 per cent needed for the LNP to form government in their own right. It’s no smooth road to victory, but Newman should be helped by his profile as the former Mayor of the massive Brisbane City Council.

Premier Bligh has one influential friend who is keen to use the Queensland election stage to revive his image, expect “Kevin from Queensland" to be strolling shopping malls and high-fiving school children across the state.

What’s to come

With the Reserve Bank scheduled to hold their first meeting for 2012 next week, the high-stakes debate over monetary policy settings, banks’ funding costs and ability to pass on interest rate cuts to consumers is set to continue.

Concerned that they are being unnecessarily locked into passing in interest rate cuts in full to mortgage holds, major banks have begun to signal a break from the practice of announcing changes in their interest rates in response to the RBA moving the cash rate. The ANZ was the first to announce it would make monthly interest rate announcements independent of both the Reserve Bank and its competitors. Westpac is set to follow suit.

While this move will allow the banks some extra room to demonstrate that interest rates are about funding costs as well as the prevailing cash rate, they are unlikely to break the shackles of this issue. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has openly stated that the RBA has scope for further rate cuts, while Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey has called for the RBA to referee banks by using information on their funding costs to rule on whether they can afford to pass on rate cuts in full. Through all of this, it’s the RBA’s job to continue its neutral stance.

Personality of the week

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh is hoping her deft handling of the floods, and her efforts to obtain straight answers for Queenslanders about who was at fault will lift her prospects of success on March 24.

During her political career, Bligh has successfully dealt with a handful of challenging portfolios and difficult briefs, including running the State’s budget as Treasurer, and overseeing drastic reforms to the Queensland education system and the construction of the $9 billion South-East Queensland Water Grid. Her rapid response to the floods and her emotionally-charged ‘We are Queenslanders’ speech were praised by the public.

Prior to entering Parliament, Bligh worked in community organisations and the Queensland Public Service. She was first elected to represent the seat of South Brisbane in 1995 and was handed her first ministerial responsibility in 1998 as the Minister for Families, Youth and Community Care and Disability Services. She went on to hold the ministries of Education, Finance, State Development, Trade and Innovation, Infrastructure and Treasury.
Bligh became Deputy Premier in 2005, rising to make history by becoming Queensland’s first female premier when her predecessor Peter Beattie resigned in September 2007.

ICU

Ministerial staff are copping a bad rap of late with a number of high profile cases of political aides stepping outside their brief. Recent resignations of staffers from the offices of the Prime Minister and the West Australian Premier coupled with other indiscretions have prompted renewed interest in the role of ministerial advisors and political staff.

Calls to formalise an accountability framework for ministerial staff resurface periodically when publicly acceptable standards of conduct are breached. Like public servants, who are subject to a code of conduct, the wages of staff employed directly by politicians are paid by the taxpayer.

The key issue in the Hodges affair is whether his actions in tipping off Tent Embassy activists to Abbott’s whereabouts are typical of those in his line of work, or whether Hodges represents a recalcitrant minority.

OTR agrees with the Prime Minister – Hodges’ actions were in bad taste. In saying this, Hodges is not the first and won’t be the last political staffer to encourage a response from a group hoping it will lead to political benefit for their employer.

However, we know that the majority of political staff are hard-working people performing an important function in government. The majority do seek to balance the interests of competing stakeholders and priorities in circumstances where decisions need to be made and resources don’t stretch far enough to allow every group to have all their wishes granted.

Political quote of the week

“I think it's time for President Assad to negotiate his exit. I really do. I think the writing is on the wall for the regime.”

- Foreign Affairs Minister Kevin Rudd, commenting on the conflict between Syrian Government forces and rebel troops. Lateline, 30 January 2012.
 

Media quote of the week

“Inevitability restored.”

- Slate Columnist John Dickerson, following Mitt Romney’s huge win in the Florida Primary, setting him on a trajectory to the Republican nomination.

ICU quote of the week

“… once again a well-meaning and important initiative seems to be headed for a frustrating impasse.”

- Age columnist Michelle Grattan reflecting on the impact of the events of Australia Day, together with the uncertain political climate, will have on attempts to recognise Indigenous people in the constitution. The Age, 28 January 2011.