Issue 282, 30 June 2010

Issue of the week:

One week on and the speed and surgical nature of Kevin Rudd’s political demise still amazes, and has an attentive nation wanting to know everything about its new leader.

In contrast to the dramatic and seismic nature of her predecessor’s removal, Prime Minister Gillard’s approach to her first days in office has been more to right the ship than to change its course. The smallest of Cabinet reshuffles and minor changes in message on climate change and asylum seekers, and finalising a deal with the miners on the RSPT (that was said to have been pretty close under Kevin Rudd) does not make a policy revolution.

Key is the change in messenger rather than the message – it has the electorate watching and listening to what Labor has to say – something they stopped doing under Kevin Rudd.

So far they like what they see. Labor’s primary vote in Newspoll has rebounded seven points after failing to shift for some weeks. In recent political history it appears that the best leader is a new one and based on a range of polls (including OTR’s own polling) Julia Gillard has started a “honeymoon period” that she is likely to ride to an election within the next six weeks.

Personality of the week:

The four ALP powerbrokers who were the driving force behind last week’s leadership change would not be recognisable to most Australians. MP Bill Shorten and Senators’ Feeney, Arbib and Farrell have more than factional allegiances in common. They were all elected in 2007 on the wave of Kevin07, but all realised that a change in Labor Party leadership was necessary to win the next federal election.

Bill Shorten from the Victorian Right is the most famous of the four, now for crunching the numbers from a Kingston restaurant rather than as the public face of the Beaconsfield mining disaster. With leadership aspirations of his own, the ex-leader of the AWU had his ascension dampened by Rudd and has been biding this time as a parliamentary secretary.

Fellow Victorian Labor Right colleague, Senator David Feeney, fell afoul of Rudd early in his parliamentary career after approaching the leader with concerns from the back bench.

Former Secretary of the NSW Labor Party Senator Mark Arbib, dubbed ‘kingmaker’ of Rudd’s leadership, played ‘queenmaker’ last Wednesday, displaying the pragmatism and steely-eyed resolve for which the NSW Right is renowned.

Finally, Senator Don Farrell, a former conservative leader of the South Australian ‘Shoppies’ union has been a factional dealmaker in his State for decades, but is now thrust upon the national stage.

Doing the numbers:

It appears that Australians are overall positively disposed towards our new Prime Minister and the changes they expect her to bring about in Australia. When asked what kind of difference the appointment of Julia Gillard as Prime Minister will make to the direction the country is headed in:

• 55 per cent of Australians say it will make a positive difference (14 per cent say a large difference and 41 per cent say only a small difference);
• 13 per cent say it will make a negative difference (6 per cent large difference, 7 per cent small difference); and
• 32 per cent say it will make no difference to the national direction.
  

The news is not all good for the new Prime Minister – while results in Victoria and South Australia are strong (a net 49 per cent think her election will make a positive difference) in Queensland in particular the results are not as strong: a net 29 per cent think the change in PM will herald a positive difference in Australia (20 points below the result for Victorians and South Australians).

Results like these reinforce the fact that Queensland is a key battleground for Labor later this year at the Federal Election.

Poll results were provided by online research panel pureprofile. The poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Australians. To find out more about pureprofile’s services, please contact tspiegel@pureprofile.com.

Digital influence:

The real star in last week’s political imbroglio has got to be the smart phone, the iPhone and the BlackBerry.

OTR watched as TV commentators and presenters received emails, text messages and tweets from political operatives and informants, who provided a blow by blow account of Julia Gillard’s ascension – all in 160 characters or less, or course!

One thing is for sure, the news cycle as we once knew it no longer exists.

Something you didn’t know:

A recent and easily overlooked poll shows just what a tough job players on both sides of the mining tax debate face. When asked to rate various occupations for honesty and ethics all of the key players in the debate fair poorly. Sixteen per cent of Australians believe business executives and Federal MPs have high ethical standards, while just 15 per cent say the same about union leaders.

As a point of comparison, nurses top the ratings with 89 per cent, followed by pharmacists (85 per cent) and doctors (79 per cent) – even opinion pollsters fare better on 27 per cent. The only consolation is that as far as voters are concerned business, government and the unions are all as bad as each other.

What’s to come:

Taking on the mantle of leadership always causes the electorate to look anew, and Julia Gillard will be using the next month to continue what she’s been doing so deftly for the last seven days.

A number of media reports have said the RSPT will be sorted by the end of the week, but regardless of whether it’s this Saturday or the next expect this mess to be cleaned up very soon. The miners’ hand is strengthened because they know the Government wants a deal, but given it’s now likely the Government will be returned they’ll have to agree to something that’s face saving for Labor or risk a cranky and uncooperative Government next term.

The media blitz will continue, and why not? So far the new PM has not put a foot wrong, charming hardened media types from Kerry O’Brien and Alan Jones to Kyle and Jackie O. Also expect an announcement that no one has seen coming, one that will wrong foot the Opposition and cement the Government’s tactical advantage.

Four weeks ago OTR predicted a late August or October poll. We’re now predicting that on the 25th of July the PM will make the short trip to Yarralumla to ask for an election on the 28th of August.

Political quotes of the week:

“I'm not going to pretend a faith I don't feel.”

- Prime Minister Julia Gillard on ABC 774, 29 June, 2010.

Media quote of the week:

“Nobody wants to see you beat up on a chick — it's a bad look.”

- Senator Barnaby Joyce on Q&A, 28 June, 2010.

ICU quote of the week:

“Having said all that folks, we’ve gotta zip.”

- Former PM Kevin Rudd, 24 June, 2010.