Issue 283, 7 July 2010

Issue of the week:

Yesterday’s unveiling of both the Government and Coalition’s policies on asylum seekers left no doubt about the continuing potency of this issue..

Asylum seekers are a wedge issue for Labor. The new Prime Minister has sought to neutralise it quickly before calling the election. Armed with polling showing the Government was in serious danger of losing seats in Western Sydney, Gillard needed to win the battle for outer metropolitan marginal voters without bleeding too many inner city voters back to the Greens.

Announced at the Lowy Institute , she attempted to strike a balance between the humanitarian treatment of refugees, while appeasing the right by announcing a mooted regional offshore processing centre in East Timor.

Attempting to overshadow Gillard’s announcement, earlier in the day, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott announced that the Coalition’s policy would reintroduce temporary protection visas and presume against refugee status for those asylum seekers found to have deliberately discarded their identity papers. It wasn’t all hard edge though. Knowing he risks losing ‘small l’ Liberal voters, Abbott also announced a trial refugee-sponsorship program allowing groups to fund the resettlement of refugees over and above Australia’s capped intake.

What’s to come:

Fix Mining Tax. Tick. Announce new asylum seeker policy. Tick. It’s been a busy first 13 days for our new Prime Minister. With an August election still likely, she is halfway through her ‘to do’ list before she makes the visit to Government House.

Through her time in leadership so far, Gillard has demonstrated a pragmatism that we have not known since John Howard.

Climate change will be another area getting Gillard’s attention. While it is unlikely that the policy will change greatly, she will be keen to set a more detailed process and timeframe on the ETS. In the meantime, she will likely announce further investment in renewable energies and energy efficiency to defend some of their territory being taken by the Greens.

Next tick could be health with Abbott outflanking the Government on mental health. It’s likely the PM will soon set out how the Government will implement their health reform plan, maybe supported by a trip to WA to seek a belated agreement from Colin Barnett.

Doing the Numbers:

With all of the frenzied media discussion about possible election timings, OTR thought it opportune to ask Australians whether they believed that the PM should determine the timing of the election. Interestingly 71% of Australians support fixed terms.

Experience of fixed terms at a state/territory level dampens this enthusiasm slightly – 69% of Australians who live in jurisdictions that have fixed terms support them, compared with 74% of those who live in States without fixed terms. Support for fixed terms is higher amongst older voters – 77% of those aged 45 and over support them compared with 65% of those under 45.

While support for fixed terms is currently strong, should a ‘brave’ PM consider surrendering this power, it would undoubtedly soften as the complexities and logistical difficulties involved in moving to fixed terms are publicly debated in the lead up to a referendum.

Poll results were provided by online research panel pureprofile. The poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Australians. To find out more about pureprofile’s services, please contact tspiegel@pureprofile.com .

ICU:

Cricket’s international brand took another blow this week with John Howard’s nomination for the vice-presidency of the International Cricket Council knocked back with little official explanation from the board. With increasing scrutiny into the decision-making processes of soccer’s governing body, FIFA – the politics of sports administration is again rearing its ugly head.

It has been speculated that Asian and African voting blocs rejected Howard on political grounds; not wanting to upset the powerful cricketing nation of India. This has been denied by Indian government minister and incumbent ICC President Sharad Pawar.

However, the actions of the ICC run contrary to the convention of the position (it is a rotating position and it was Australia and NZ’s turn to nominate) and only add to lingering questions about the transparency and integrity of the game’s administration. Surely a man with Howard’s credentials and experience in leadership, diplomacy and reform, not to mention his deep-seated passion for the game make him the perfect person to help run Cricket’s international governing body.

Personality of the week:

Here’s a big statement; Scott Morrison is one of the ‘top three’ MPs recruited by the Liberal Party in the past decade. Behind Malcolm Turnbull and Andrew Robb, no recently elected Liberal MP has made a bigger mark or exerted so much influence during their first term in office.

The times suit Morrison. He is a professional, disciplined and PR savvy campaigner who knows how to read the marginal seat research and shape and nuance the message accordingly.

Labor hard heads point to the Rudd Government’s approach to population, immigration and asylum policies as major contributors to dumping the former PM. While the mining tax was the wrecking ball, Scott Morrison can take some credit for severely undermining the foundations.

Something you didn’t know:

With Defence Minister, Senator John Faulkner, announcing his decision today to retire to the backbench after the election – we thought we’d pay tribute by recounting one of our favourite Faulkner anecdotes from former Sun-Herald European Correspondent, Alex Mitchell as told to Alan Ramsey at the SMH in 2004.

In 1993, when Faulkner was Veteran’s Affairs Minister under Keating, he was on a trip to visit World War I battlefields in France with a group of elderly diggers. John Howard was on the same trip and a rumour had been sent around the group that Faulkner had marched in protest against the Vietnam War. Alex Mitchell writes:

"As we headed across the countryside, the official minders on our coach suggested we pass the time with an old-fashioned sing-song. Waltzing Matilda and On the Road to Gundagai were worked over. Someone had a go at Our Don Bradman, but could only recall the opening couple of lines. As he petered out, Faulkner took over. He knew the first verse, the second verse, and all the verses. We all joined in the chorus. The diggers clapped and cheered. There were a few misty eyes. Asked for more, Faulkner gave us Lilli Marlene and then some of George Formby's chestnuts.

"Later, as we helped the veterans off the coach, one of them clutched my arm and whispered hoarsely: 'That Faulkner, bloody good bloke. I don't care if he was against the Vietnam War. So was I."

Digital Influence:

Sex and Governance – topics that usually manage to avoid each other by a wide margin are brought together in ICANN’s approval of the creation of the .xxx top level domain. The process to approve the creation of what some are describing as an ‘online p*rn ghetto’ provides an interesting insight into the little understood administrative arrangements of the Internet.

The Internet is a funny beast – created by the army, originally popularised in academia and effectively run and administered by a group of US organisations. The Internet is a US invention and ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) is a US not-for-profit corporation, who under an MOU with the US Government determines how web addresses (URLs) are allocated and approves ‘registries’ who sell and administer web addresses.

The fight to register the .xxx domain by ICM Registry has been going on for ten years. Under pressure from multiple jurisdictions, ICANN rejected the final proposal three times before an Independent Review Panel overturned this decision earlier this year.

African and some European nations have lobbied for the governance arrangements to be moved under the auspices of the UN. The US, supported by Australia, Canada and others have successfully resisted these moves. However, the approval of the .xxx domain and Senator Joe Liebermann’s proposed Cybersecurity legislation granting the American President extraordinary powers to shut down sections of the Internet in the interests of national security are likely to re-open this debate.

Political quote of the week:

"I have no doubt that this for the government, the party and for myself is the right time to make this decision."

- Senator John Faulkner announcing he would return to the backbench after the next election. 7 July 2010. The Australian .

Media quote of the week:

"Some 'men' are born in the middle ground, some achieve the middle ground, and some have the middle ground thrust upon them."

- Barrie Cassidy describing the Prime Minister. 7 July 2010 The Drum .

ICU quote of the week:

"I share some of the concerns he's (Howard) voiced publicly about the kind of factors that are influencing this decision, so I'd be very happy to offer full support for John Howard to get this role."

- Prime Minister Julia Gillard on Fairfax Radio , 2 July 2010.