Issue 284, 14 July 2010

Issue of the week:

Will she, won’t she? Australian political insiders and the press gallery are disappearing into a hole of their own introspection attempting to predict whether or not Julia Gillard will call an election in the next couple of days. The polls are pointing to a Labor victory if the Prime Minister was to call an August election, but is historical precedent on her side?

Not really. Like her rise to power, Gillard has little political precedent to guide her decision.

You have to stretch back close to half a century to find a Prime Minister who took the job in Government within a year of going to the polls. Harold Holt led the Coalition to victory in the 1966 election following a bloodless handover of power from Robert Menzies earlier that year.

Recently-installed leaders, at a federal and state level, have had a mixed bag of results at Australian elections. However, most of their success has come from Opposition – helped by governments hastily calling snap, early elections.

Current WA Premier Colin Barnett was voted in as Leader of the Opposition just three days before the election campaign was called by then-Premier Alan Carpenter in August 2008. In 1983, Bob Hawke’s ascension to the Federal ALP leadership (replacing Bill Hayden) and Malcolm Fraser’s visit to Government House to call the 1983 election occurred on the same day.

What’s to come:

When Health and Ageing Minister Roxon said last month that, “Health will take centre stage at the upcoming federal election,” it was a fair bet she would be right.

It’s also a fair bet that Prime Minister Gillard will aim to put her own stamp on health reform this election to make it about “seeking a mandate” for the Government’s $7 billion health reform agreement. Whether they can buy Western Australia’s signature for the agreement before the election remains to be seen.

The Government is looking to build on longstanding public opinion that the ALP are the better managers of Australia’s health system. The Government will also use the legislative backlog in the Senate on health to its advantage against the Coalition. Complementing this will be an announcement on mental health, an issue where the Opposition is gaining traction.

The Opposition also needs to place some flesh on the bones of their own health policies to be considered a viable alternative.

Doing the Numbers:

Incumbent politicians will need to do more than talk about their work ethic if they want to get re-elected later this year. More than half of all voters (51 per cent) think that today’s politicians are underworked while only 17 per cent think they are overworked (32 per cent think they work about the right amount of hours).

Perceptions of how hard our politicians work get worse with age: 57 per cent of those aged over 55 think politicians today are underworked compared with 48 per cent of those under 55. South Australians are most likely to think their politicians are underworked (58 per cent) while Victorian voters are least likely to think the same (45 per cent).

The best advice OTR can give to candidates is to buy a comfortable pair of shoes: there is nothing more effective for building name recognition and then support than the tried and tested approach of knocking on doors. Although to borrow a phrase from one of Australia’s better community campaigners: you can’t fatten the pig on market day in politics .

Poll results were provided by online research panel pureprofile. The poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Australians. To find out more about pureprofile’s services, please contact tspiegel@pureprofile.com .

ICU:

As Mark Webber’s victory at the British grand-prix was overshadowed by the public airing of Red Bull Racing’s dirty laundry, one voice is mysteriously quiet in the ongoing saga. The energy drink giant that pays the salaries of those bickering in pit lane has been silent on the matter.

Many high profile sponsors would take umbrage to such antics, concerned at the potential for brand damage. Yet a passionate, ultracompetitive man with energy to burn is Red Bull’s core demographic. The brand likes to align itself with individuals pushing the boundaries of achievement through competition (and heavy doses of caffeine).

That a man who likes to drive fast cars is getting hot under the collar because he feels slighted by his team sits well with the adrenaline and testosterone-fuelled image that Red Bull craves. It also produces a lot of column inches. Which all begs the question: does Red Bull actually encourage the drama emanating from its racing team?

Personality of the week:

It seems as if Bob Hawke has been re-embraced by the ALP, which in recent years has framed Paul Keating and Gough Whitlam as their icons. While Keating had Keating: The Musical, Hawke was back in a big way this week with a biography release and a forthcoming Channel 10 mini-series.

The unnatural selection of Whitlam and Keating as the party’s heroes over Hawke has always seemed to defy logic particularly considering that between them Keating and Whitlam won three elections and lost four. Hawke’s electoral record is a much more impressive 4-0.

Both Hawke and Blanche d'Alpuget, Hawke’s biographer come mistress come wife performed exceptionally well this week, displaying significant political astuteness in an interview with ABC’s Kerry O’Brien.

Hawke’s intelligence, exuberance and charm (and political success) should see him held in higher stead by the current crop of ALP leaders. As d’Alpuget said on the 7:30 Report, “He (Hawke) is a born political leader - and they're very strange animals. You don't get many of them in a century, genuine political leaders.”

Digital Influence:

Our privacy laws are in for an overhaul to bring them in line with the digital era.

Special Minister of State, Joe Ludwig released the Government’s new Privacy Principles for consultation, confirming that proposed amendments to the Privacy Act would introduce civil penalties – fines - for breaches of privacy associated with use of personal information on social networking websites and search engines.

With Privacy Act reforms relating to credit reporting and health information to follow, these changes are sure to be closely watched by a raft of industries.

Political quote of the week:

"Once again with respect and obviously happy to be judged on what I say and what I said in the speech was not that. I did not say that.”

"I'm not going to leave undisturbed the impression that I made an announcement about a specific location.”

- Julia Gillard’s response to Michael Smith’s question on East Timor, 4BC, 8 July 2010.

Media quote of the week:

"When I see Smith interviewed, I always think he might just be the only man in the world who suffers from a proceeding (as distinct from receding) hairline. I swear to Christ it's attempting to gradually engulf his whole face and I'll bet he has to shave his forehead daily.”

- Bill Leak commenting on Foreign Minister Stephen Smith’s head of hair, The Australian, 13 July 2010.

ICU quote of the week:

“Not bad for a number two driver?”

- Mark Webber to team boss Christian Horner after winning the British GP, 11 July 2010.